October 30, 2012

Ensemble Predictions of the 2012 US Presidential Election

2012. PS: Political Science and Politics 45 (4): 651-654. With Florian Hollenbach and Michael D. Ward.

We create an ensemble prediction of the upcoming election. We combine the intuition, theories, and concepts implicit in all of the forecasting models presented in 2012 PS Symposium to make an accurate out-of-sample prediction. Without arbitrating between models and theories, we aim to aggregate them solely with an eye toward increasing our chances of getting it right.

External link (pdf)