Highlighted Research

December 17, 2012

Computerized Adaptive Testing for Public Opinion Surveys

In this paper, we present computerized adaptive testing (CAT) as a method for minimizing the number of questions each respondent must answer while preserving measurement accuracy and precision.

2013. Political Analysis 21 (2): 141-171. With Joshua Cutler.
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October 30, 2012

Ensemble Predictions of the 2012 US Presidential Election

2012. PS: Political Science and Politics 45 (4): 651-654. With Florian Hollenbach and Michael D. Ward.

We create an ensemble prediction of the upcoming election. We combine the intuition, theories, and concepts implicit in all of the forecasting models presented in 2012 PS Symposium to make an accurate out-of-sample prediction. Without arbitrating between models and theories, we aim to aggregate them solely with an eye toward increasing our chances of getting it right.

2012. PS: Political Science and Politics 45 (4): 651-654. With Florian Hollenbach and Michael D. Ward.
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May 23, 2012

Improving Predictions Using Ensemble Bayesian Model Averaging

We present ensemble Bayesian model averaging (EBMA) and illustrate its ability to aid scholars in the social sciences to make more accurate forecasts of future events.

2012. Political Analysis 20 (3) 271-291. With Florian Hollenbach and Michael D. Ward.
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March 1, 2011

Bayesian Model Averaging

Theoretical Developments and Practical Applicaitons

Bayesian model averaging (BMA) offers a systematic method for analyzing specification uncertainty and checking the robustness of one’s results to alternative model specifications, but it has not come into wide usage within the discipline. In this paper, we introduce important recent developments in BMA and show how they enable a different approach to using the technique in applied social science research.

2011. Political Analysis 18 (2): 245-270. With Brendan Nyhan.
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