2012. PS: Political Science and Politics 45 (4): 651-654. With Florian Hollenbach and Michael D. Ward.
We create an ensemble prediction of the upcoming election. We combine the intuition, theories, and concepts implicit in all of the forecasting models presented in 2012 PS Symposium to make an accurate out-of-sample prediction. Without arbitrating between models and theories, we aim to aggregate them solely with an eye toward increasing our chances of getting it right.
2012. PS: Political Science and Politics 45 (4): 651-654. With Florian Hollenbach and Michael D. Ward. External link (pdf)
Theoretical Developments and Practical Applicaitons
Bayesian model averaging (BMA) offers a systematic method for analyzing specification uncertainty and checking the robustness of one’s results to alternative model specifications, but it has not come into wide usage within the discipline. In this paper, we introduce important recent developments in BMA and show how they enable a different approach to using the technique in applied social science research.