Working Papers

May 10, 2013

Polarization and Ideology

Partisan Sources of Low-Dimensionality in Scaled Roll-Call Analyses

In this article, we conduct Monte Carlo simulations altering assumptions regarding the dimensionality and distribution of member preferences and scale the resulting roll-call matrices. Our simulations show that party polarization generates misleading evidence in favor of low-dimensionality.

With John H. Aldrich and David Sparks
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October 2, 2012

Say Yes to the Guess:

Tailoring Elegant Ensembles on a Tight (Data) Budget

We consider ensemble Bayesian model averaging (EBMA) in the context of small-n prediction tasks with high rates of missing component forecasts.

With Florian Hollenbach and Michael D. Ward. Local copy.

June 15, 2012

Connecting Campaigns

Consultant-Candidate Networks in American Congressional Elections

We conduct the first systematic analysis of how consultants help disseminate campaign tactics among their clients using data from U.S. Congressional elections.

Working paper. With Brendan Nyhan.
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Working Papers