publications

January 1, 2014

Polarization and Ideology

Partisan Sources of Low-Dimensionality in Scaled Roll-Call Analyses

In this article, we conduct Monte Carlo simulations altering assumptions regarding the dimensionality and distribution of member preferences and scale the resulting roll-call matrices. Our simulations show that party polarization generates misleading evidence in favor of low-dimensionality.

2014. Political Analysis 22 (4) 435-456. With John H. Aldrich and David Sparks
Local Copy (pdf) | External Link

 

October 30, 2012

Ensemble Predictions of the 2012 US Presidential Election

2012. PS: Political Science and Politics 45 (4): 651-654. With Florian Hollenbach and Michael D. Ward.

We create an ensemble prediction of the upcoming election. We combine the intuition, theories, and concepts implicit in all of the forecasting models presented in 2012 PS Symposium to make an accurate out-of-sample prediction. Without arbitrating between models and theories, we aim to aggregate them solely with an eye toward increasing our chances of getting it right.

2012. PS: Political Science and Politics 45 (4): 651-654. With Florian Hollenbach and Michael D. Ward.
External link (pdf)

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